Open-source analysis of the potential configuration and kinetic performance of the Oreshnik ballistic missile
Keywords:
Oreshnik system, kinetic warhead, suborbital trajectory, aerodynamic heating, propulsion configuration, ballistic missileAbstract
Purpose. This article presents an analysis of the tactical and technical characteristics of the Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile, which, according to open-source data, was employed in a precision strike against an infrastructure facility in Dnipro in November 2024. The study focuses on the missile’s configuration, warhead type, and aerodynamic behavior using open-source information. Design / Method / Approach. An interdisciplinary methodology was applied, comprising Sentinel-2 satellite imagery analysis, kinetic-energy and aerodynamic-heating modeling, and comparative assessment against the Russian Avangard, Rubezh, and UR-100N UTTKh platforms. Missile debris and factory markings were used to reconstruct manufacturing chronology and identify design features. Findings. It was determined that Oreshnik is equipped with a hypersonic non-explosive kinetic warhead capable of destructive impact via high-velocity collision. The missile likely follows a suborbital trajectory, achieving speeds of 11–12 km/s and surface temperatures in excess of 4300 K. Markings indicate key components were manufactured in 2017, suggesting reuse of legacy platforms. Theoretical Implications. This work advances the theory of kinetic-impact systems by elucidating thermal-loading mechanisms and energy-transfer processes in hypersonic vehicles, thereby bridging contemporary implementations with the historical “Rods from God” concept. Practical Implications. The findings reveal limited strike effectiveness owing to high costs and moderate destructive yield, yet underscore the system’s value as a demonstrator technology and its utility for hypersonic-system testing. Originality / Value. This study constitutes the first technical analysis of an Oreshnik missile strike based exclusively on open-source data, illustrating the growing role of civilian satellite imagery and interdisciplinary modeling in arms-monitoring. Research Limitations / Future Research. The analysis relies solely on open-source information. Future work should include detailed damage assessment, thermal-protection analysis, and expanded trajectory modeling with advanced software tools. Enhanced monitoring of high-velocity conventional weapons is recommended to support arms-control and humanitarian-law frameworks. Article Type. Applied research.
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